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Crop prices soar as seed shortages deepen

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Crop prices soar as seed shortages deepen

April is a crucial time for agriculture, as farmers across the country begin preparing for the spring planting season. In fields and valleys that have endured the long winter, the stillness is replaced by the sound of machinery returning to work. Farmers and specialists are assessing soil moisture and nutrient levels, repairing equipment and getting everything in place before planting begins in May.

These efforts come after a difficult year for the sector. In the autumn of 2025, total crop production reached just over 740,000 tonnes, around 40 percent lower than the year before. As a result, the country was only able to meet its annual demand for flour and wheat, 77 percent of its potato needs, and 73 percent of its vegetables. Farmers and officials attributed the poor results largely to harsh weather conditions, including drought and hail, which affected already dry and fragile soils. This year, there is a clear focus on improving outcomes. The Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Light Industry has announced plans to sow between 617,000 and 620,000 hectares of land, increasing the cultivated area by 30,000 to 40,000 hectares compared to 2025. The goal is to fully meet the country’s demand for key crops such as wheat, potatoes and vegetables.

Head of the Policy and Planning Department at the Ministry Ts.Bolorchuluun said preparations are well underway. He noted that 130 billion MNT in concessional loans will be made available to farmers this year. Applications are currently being submitted through local Food and Agriculture Departments, and funds are expected to be issued by mid-May. Farmers and businesses with existing loans can reapply if they meet the requirements set by commercial banks. Moreover, longer-term plans are moving forward. Under the Atar-IV campaign, the country aims to increase its cultivated land by 200,000 hectares over the next three to four years, which is more than 30 percent above current levels. With more land under cultivation and better preparation, officials are hoping for a stronger harvest this year. As the planting season approaches, farmers are returning to their fields with renewed determination, working to overcome last year’s setbacks and produce a better yield in the months ahead.

 10,000 tonnes of fuel to be supplied at discounted prices

Fuel remains one of the most critical inputs in agricultural production, particularly during the intensive periods of spring sowing and autumn harvesting. Each year, the sector consumes more than 20,000 tonnes of fuel and lubricants nationwide. In preparation for this year’s planting season, a request has been submitted to the Ministry of Industry and Mineral Resources, along with fuel importers, to supply 10,000 tonnes of fuel at a stable price of 3,300 MNT to 3,500 MNT per litre, which is unchanged from current levels. This initial allocation is expected to cover roughly 50 percent of the sector’s total fuel demand.

The Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Light Industry has also indicated that efforts will continue to ensure farmers can access diesel and other essential fuels without price increases in the coming months. Maintaining stable input costs is seen as key to supporting producers as they work to expand cultivation and improve yields. Alongside fuel support, measures are being introduced to strengthen vegetable production. Farmers will be offered concessional loans to invest in summer greenhouses and to purchase seeds for four types of vegetables. These steps are expected to increase the area under vegetable cultivation by 1,500 hectares and boost output by an additional 20,000 tonnes compared to last year.

Risk management is another priority. To help mitigate the impact of extreme weather, authorities have decided to increase reserves of cloud-seeding rockets, which are used to reduce the threat of hail and protect crops during the growing season. Further support will come through the Employment Support Fund, which will assist farmers engaged in the cultivation of fruits, berries and vegetables. At the same time, longer-term investments are being planned to modernise the sector. The Ministry has outlined plans to develop smart greenhouse complexes through public-private partnerships. These facilities will make use of renewable energy sources, as well as surplus heat from power plants, and will incorporate advanced technologies aimed at improving efficiency and extending growing seasons.

Growing the nation’s seed industry

For the past decade, the country has used an average of 56,000 tonnes of wheat seed each year. This spring, just over half of that amount, around 28,000 to 29,000 tonnes, is already held by farming enterprises, according to Vice President of the Mongolian Farmers and Flour Producers’ Union Sh.Shinebayar. 

He underlined that the Agricultural Corporation has opened an auction for a further 10,000 tonnes of wheat seed, while the remaining requirement is expected to be met through imports. “Overall, there will be sufficient wheat seed,” he said, adding that vegetable seed supplies are also adequate. However, the situation is far more strained when it comes to potatoes.

According to the Ministry, approximately 40,000 tonnes of seed potatoes are needed this year to plant 16,000 hectares. If small household growers expand their participation, the required planting area could increase further. Based on an average requirement of 2.5 tonnes per hectare, using seed potatoes weighing 30 to 40 grams each, the total demand remains significant. Yet current reserves stand at only around 15,000 tonnes nationwide, leaving a substantial shortfall that will likely need to be covered through imports.

More broadly, seed supply remains a recurring challenge across the sector. Each year, between 3 million USD and 5 million USD is spent on importing wheat seed alone, while domestic seed production continues to lag behind demand. Although there are around a dozen potato seed farms in operation, many are not functioning at full capacity. Sh.Shinebayar stressed that strengthening local seed production and building reliable reserves should be a priority moving forward.

Farmers on the ground are already feeling the pressure. Ts.Amgalan, Director of “Khos Bulag,” a company operating in Orkhon soum of Selenge Province, said his farm manages between 400 and 500 hectares of land. This year, the company plans to plant rapeseed on 180 hectares and wheat on 150 to 180 hectares. Rapeseed seed will be sourced from “Mind Tech,” a domestic vegetable oil producer, with an agreement to supply the company after the autumn harvest.

Wheat seed, however, remains difficult to secure. “Supply is limited and prices have risen sharply,” Ts.Amgalan said. The company is currently in discussions with the Provincial Department of Food and Agriculture to obtain seed. This year, the price of wheat seed has reached 1.8 million MNT to 2 million MNT per tonne, which is an increase of 20 to 30 percent compared to last year. Access to financing also remains a concern, with farmers continuing to face challenges in securing affordable credit. As the planting season approaches, these constraints highlight the need for more consistent seed supply systems and stronger domestic production to reduce reliance on imports and stabilise costs for farmers.

There’s a shortage of skilled agricultural workers

Many in the sector say farming is even more demanding than running a conventional business. It requires heavy investment, constant physical labour and leaves producers at the mercy of the weather. It is little surprise, then, that the number of farming enterprises has been shrinking year by year. In 2022, the country had 1,590 crop-farming businesses. That figure fell to 1,553 in 2023, and dropped further to around 1,500 in 2024 and 2025.

There are several reasons behind this decline. Small and medium-sized farms, in particular, continue to struggle to stay afloat both financially and technically. Although the state offers concessional loans and support with fertiliser supplies, many businesses fail to qualify. Some cannot meet commercial banks’ lending requirements, while others lack the property assets needed to secure financing. As a result, a large share of producers remain undercapitalised and vulnerable. Land degradation is adding to the strain. More than 30 percent of cultivated land, or roughly one-third of the country’s farming area, is affected by soil erosion. As soil fertility weakens, yields per hectare fall, cutting directly into farm income and reducing the viability of already fragile businesses.

In addition, the cost structure of farming remains heavily exposed to external pressures. Nearly all of the machinery, equipment, crop protection chemicals and fuel used in the sector are imported. In practical terms, seven out of every 10 inputs required for production come from abroad. That leaves farmers highly vulnerable to exchange-rate movements, particularly the strength of the USD, which continues to push up operating costs. 

Labour shortages are another serious obstacle. Skilled agricultural workers, mechanics, technicians, and tractor and combine operators are increasingly difficult to find. A representative of “Ganjiguur Bagana,” a company operating in Tuv Province, said that while agricultural technology has improved, much of the work still depends on manual labour. “In spring, there is an enormous amount to do, such as clearing fields, removing weeds, loosening the soil, ploughing and applying fertiliser. All of this requires people, but there is a real shortage of workers. Soum centres have thinned out, young people have moved to the city, and in many places only a handful of older residents remain to work the land,” the representative said. 

He added that if farms were financially stronger, they could attract workers by offering better pay. But that, in turn, raises a broader question: why have so many producers failed to become stable and self-sustaining despite years of loan programmes and state support? In his view, one of the most damaging factors is the inconsistency of government policy. Tax rules and subsidy arrangements can change suddenly. At times, taxes on flour and wheat are lifted, wheat support is left unchanged, or policy attention shifts in favour of oilseeds while other crops are neglected. Producers argue that goods which can be grown domestically should face higher import duties, allowing local agriculture more room to develop and compete.

Even when planting begins, the uncertainty does not end there. Bringing in the harvest is a separate challenge altogether. Final output, and the ability of farmers to get through the agricultural season with limited losses, still depends heavily on weather and natural conditions. On top of that, because such a large share of agricultural inputs is imported, producers remain exposed to currency swings and supply disruptions.

This spring, those pressures have become even more severe. Farmers say the prices of fuel, fertilizer and plant protection products have nearly doubled compared with last year. One of the main reasons is the disruption to oil production and supply linked to conflict in the Middle East. Petroleum-derived materials are an essential component in both fertilisers and crop protection products, meaning turbulence in global energy markets quickly feeds into farm costs. As a result, this year’s spring planting season is beginning under intense pressure. Farmers are entering the fields at a time when the price of nearly every essential input, from fuel to fertilizer and chemicals, has already risen sharply and may yet climb further. For many producers, the challenge is no longer simply how to grow a good crop, but how to survive a season in which the risks are mounting on every side.

 

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