The latest early warning issued by the National Agency for Meteorology and Environmental Monitoring (NAMEM) signals a challenging winter ahead for parts of Mongolia, with a significant portion of the country at risk of experiencing varying degrees of zud—a severe weather phenomenon that can devastate livestock and rural livelihoods.

The forecast for the 2025–2026 winter-spring season was developed using a combination of ground-based observations and satellite data. Key indicators included drought conditions, summer pasture growth, the carrying capacity and yield of winter and spring pastures, air temperature and precipitation anomalies, snow cover and depth, as well as preliminary forecasts for November’s weather.

According to the report, three percent of Mongolia’s territory is projected to face very severe zud conditions, while 22 percent is at high risk, 21 percent at moderate risk, 26 percent at low risk, and 28 percent at very low risk. These findings were shared by the agency’s Agricultural Meteorology Research Division, which emphasized the importance of early preparedness to mitigate potential losses.

Zud events—characterized by extreme cold, heavy snow, or drought followed by sudden harsh winters—have long posed serious threats to Mongolia’s herding communities, often leading to large-scale livestock deaths and rural migration. With the forecast providing a crucial early warning, local authorities and herders are now urged to begin preparations to protect vulnerable households and safeguard livestock.

This early assessment underscores the growing urgency of climate resilience strategies as Mongolia continues to face the compounded impacts of environmental extremes and climate change.