The Ministry of Energy has unveiled a draft strategic document aiming to raise the share of clean energy in the country’s total electricity production to 53.4 percent by 2050, up from just 7.2 percent today, while eliminating the dependence on electricity imports entirely. The document, covering the period 2026 to 2050, represents one of the most ambitious overhauls of the energy sector to date.
The plan comes as officials project that Mongolia’s energy demand will grow 5.4 times by mid-century, driven by economic expansion, urbanization and rising household and industrial consumption. To meet that demand, the ministry says installed capacity will need to expand dramatically from the current 1,936 MW to approximately 23,280 MW by 2050, a more than tenfold increase. Achieving that scale of growth will require building an average of 818 MW of new energy capacity every year, a pace the ministry says is 12 to 17 times faster than the current rate of development, underscoring the scale of the logistical and financial challenge ahead.
The strategy outlines a three-stage rollout. The first stage, running through 2030, will focus on expanding capacity, reducing reliance on imported electricity, and building production reserves to stabilize the grid in the near term. The second stage, extending to 2040, will bring new sources online, including the long-planned Eg River hydropower plant, and will see Mongolia launch its first energy export corridor starting in 2035. In the third and final stage, planners intend to further diversify the energy mix by introducing nuclear and hydrogen power sources, moving the country beyond its historical reliance on coal and imported electricity toward a broader, more resilient portfolio of generation technologies.
Financing the transition will require substantial investment. The ministry estimates 44.8 billion USD will be needed for generation sources, transmission networks, and heating infrastructure, with an additional 58 billion to 73 billion USD required for distribution networks and demand-side measures such as efficiency upgrades and grid modernization. Combined, this amounts to roughly 1.8 billion USD in annual investment, or about 5 percent of the long-term GDP.
Ulaanbaatar currently faces a heat supply deficit of 1,121 MW, a shortfall that has contributed to seasonal energy shortages and heightened reliance on coal-fired heating during the winter months, a major driver of the capital’s chronic air pollution. Meanwhile, electricity imports account for roughly a quarter of the country’s total annual energy supply, leaving Mongolia vulnerable to external price shocks and supply disruptions.
