–City authorities ignored engineers’ warnings and solutions– 

The flood of 2023 clearly demonstrated that Ulaanbaatar City is completely unprepared for disaster risks. After four consecutive days of rain, the Selbe River overflowed its banks and flooded both the capital city center and ger districts, causing significant emotional and financial damages to many residents. According to calculations by engineers at the Mongolian University of Science and Technology (MUST), the flood caused by the rainfall was a regular event that statistically occurs once every ten years and was not inherently dangerous. They concluded that based on forecasts from meteorological agencies, it would have been possible to take preparedness measures in advance. However, this ordinary event ended up causing major damage in the capital.

Officials ranked the incident as the third most significant disaster since the great flood of 1966, reporting that more than 32,000 residents from 96 khoroos were affected in some way, with around 360 buildings and about 300 homes and gers submerged. In essence, this flood was the result of poor urban planning from the beginning, with unregulated land allocation leading to construction encroaching into river basins, riverbeds, and floodplains.

Now, experts are warning that the Selbe River could flood again from just three to four days of light rain. Notable researchers such as Dr. B.Ayurzana, Secretary of the School of Civil Engineering and Architecture at MUST and a water engineer, and Dr. Ts.Sosorbaram, a technical science doctor and consulting water engineer, had been warning of the risk of a flood like the one in 2023 as early as three to five years prior. Today, based on more precise calculations, research, and data, these researchers are cautioning that a similar flood could occur at any time and sweep through the capital city center.

With meteorological agencies forecasting abundant rainfall across Mongolia in the coming month, it is now more important than ever to start paying serious attention to the safety and preparedness of our city, which currently lacks the capacity to withstand even light rain.

Foreign experts invited to work

Since the flood last year, Ulaanbaatar City authorities have carried out numerous activities under the guise of reducing disaster risks, and some of these efforts are still ongoing. These efforts include cleaning the sediments of the Selbe and Dund rivers, relocating trees and shrubs, building embankments, digging drains and channels, and constructing bridges and dams. However, whether these projects were based on proper calculations, research, and standards, and whether they involved professional experts or assessed the real impacts, remains unclear and vague. In fact, the capital city authorities have consistently ignored the recommendations and solutions provided by water engineers and experts, acting as though they are blind and deaf to professional advice.

Under the Disaster Risk Reduction and Surge Support of the Kingdom of the Netherlands, Mongolian water engineers, together with Dutch experts, spent over two years developing short, medium, and long-term strategies and technical recommendations to reduce flood risks in Ulaanbaatar City. These were completed in the spring of this year, but so far, capital city officials have not accepted them. In desperation, the researchers have begun writing posts on social media, raising questions such as, “Is professional advice and solutions important, or is money more important?” and urging the capital city mayor to answer these questions.

Interestingly, the initiative to develop such strategies and recommendations was led by the Mayor of Ulaanbaatar, Kh.Nyambaatar, who, shortly after being appointed as the city’s mayor following the 2023 flood, reached out to the senior expert from the Development Agency under the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs for assistance. This request has been formally documented. The letter states: “We express our gratitude for your visit to Mongolia, where you met with us and examined the impacts of the flood in Ulaanbaatar, as well as the water infrastructure works. We would like to request your support in providing short, medium, and long-term recommendations regarding infrastructure and water management, as well as assistance in securing investment for these projects.”

Based on the mayor’s request, a joint project was initiated, and Dutch experts visited Ulaanbaatar twice, collaborating with local researchers to develop the strategies and recommendations. However, it seems that, over time, the capital city authorities have either become complacent with their efforts to combat floods or have become overly optimistic that the disaster risk is no longer an immediate threat, ignoring the recommendations made.

In general, it raises the question whether there is a genuine desire and determination among Ulaanbaatar officials, particularly Mayor Kh.Nyambaatar and his team, to effectively reduce flood risks and address the disaster prevention efforts.

Protecting spaces around river is crucial 

While researchers have declined to give interviews, they have presented their developed recommendations. They characterize the current state of Ulaanbaatar City as “flood-vulnerable and hazardous”. Despite some measures implemented since 2023 to reduce flood risks, these efforts have only mitigated danger in limited areas. The overall risk, particularly in the central parts of the capital city, remains high—especially in residential districts and neighborhoods built along river basins, where urban development has been haphazard. Ulaanbaatar is particularly susceptible to three types of flooding: pluvial flooding (surface water rise due to rainfall), fluvial flooding (river and stream overflow), and ice-jam flooding (rise in river levels caused by ice blockages).

To build a flood-resilient and disaster-proof city, the experts emphasize the necessity of implementing a series of measures. Among these, the most crucial is preserving river spaces, implementing comprehensive flood protection measures, and planning a unified system for water absorption, storage, and drainage at the basin level. In countries and cities with large rivers and lakes, the concept of “room for the river” is highly valued and protected. This approach involves leaving adequate space for the river to function naturally and without obstruction. However, the researchers point out that the opposite is happening in Mongolia, where policies counteract the preservation of river spaces—an issue they view as central to the ongoing flooding risks.

Dr. B.Ayurzana elaborates on the need to account for the dynamic nature of river water levels. “River water levels are never static. Sometimes they overflow, their flow decreases, or they return to normal levels. We need to plan and preserve spaces that accommodate these fluctuations, and build protective embankments and walls to prevent floodwaters from entering the city during high-water events.” The researcher then continued, “Every river requires its own designated space in urban planning. If we continue to allow unauthorized buildings and infrastructure to encroach on floodplains, the resulting damage will only increase. The state must hold these businesses accountable for the flood-related damage they cause, and urban authorities must systematically clear certain areas for their intended purpose, with a robust investment system in place to support these efforts. Without such a framework, no one will respect the river’s space, and we’ll continue to face damage due to irresponsible actions by others.”

In addition, the experts recommend that the government should focus on comprehensive urban planning, ensuring that the capital city is not developed piecemeal. They emphasize the need for coordination between ministries responsible for environment, construction, and water management. Specifically, they suggest that urban authorities monitor the quality, lifespan, and maintenance of water infrastructure, improve the capacity of specialized institutions such as geodesy, water engineering, and construction, and increase financial support for water-related projects.

The experts also stress the importance of public involvement in reducing flood and water-related risks. They argue that active public participation—through demanding accountability, raising awareness, and critiquing institutional actions—can significantly accelerate the effectiveness of flood prevention measures and push authorities to take necessary actions. Only with a collective, coordinated effort can Ulaanbaatar hope to significantly reduce flood risks and ensure long-term disaster resilience.

Building wall worth 20 Billion MNT can’t even protect us  

Professional experts have identified the main cause of last year's flood as “illegal construction and structures built along the Selbe River bank”. This suggests that the issue stems from encroaching on the river’s habitat. In essence, this is a reminder to avoid worsening the current situation and to prevent the construction of additional buildings and structures. However, over the past two years, the capital city authorities have filled in the Selbe River under the guise of reducing flood risk. Forget about the river’s habitat, protected zones, riverbed, or floodplains. In the capital city’s central area, 21 businesses that have illegally constructed buildings and structures along the riverbank were supposed to be held accountable, and plans to demolish 10 non-standard bridges were announced in the aftermath of the disaster. Yet, these announcements were quickly forgotten, and they could not do anything about it. Even the famous “Corruption” district was left standing. Instead of tearing it down, they helped to bring it into operation.

Now, they claim to protect the city's residents from floods by digging and altering the riverbed at the confluence of the Selbe and Dund rivers, where they are building a concrete wall costing 20.5 billion MNT. However, water engineers have calculated that this wall will not fully protect the residents of the capital city center. They have analyzed the flood flows that are expected to occur once in 100 years and have been measured since 1966 in various ways. The flood flow fluctuated between 40 to 406 cubic meters per second, with the most frequent flow rate being 140 cubic meters per second. Using this data, they created a flood scenario for 2023 and calculated the impact of the retaining wall. The result remains risky. Therefore, the team of disaster risk reduction and surge support is working hard to hand over their recommendations and reports to the relevant authorities. However, those officials seem more interested in the celebrations, roads, and curbs, as if flood risks don’t matter. While they drag their feet, there is concern that the flood will knock on the door again due to the lack of accountability.

By D.CHANTSALMAA